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Many readers of this blog will probably remember the article by Danny Hakim (and the associated infographics) that ran in the New York Times back in October about the “broken promises” of GMOs. I need to lose weight fast and free The article prompted some cheers and some legitimate criticisms.

After that article came out, one thing bugged me a bit. Weight loss tricks without exercise We have scores of experimental studies showing GMOs (particularly the Bt varieties) increase observed yield, so why don’t we see a pronounced effect on aggregate, national yield trends? At about the same time these thoughts were swirling around in my head, I received a note from Jesse Tack at Kansas State University asking the same.


2 week weight loss plan As it turns out, we weren’t the first to wonder about this. For weight loss tips The most recent, 2016, National Academies report on GMOs noted the following:

So we began speculating about possible factors that could be driving this seeming discrepancy between the national, aggregate data on the one hand and the findings from experimental studies on the other, and wondered if aggregation bias might be an issue or whether the lack of controls for changes in weather and climate might be a factor. Healthy diet plans One of Jesse’s colleagues, Nathan Hendricks, also suggested variation in soil characteristics, which when matched up with different timings of adoption in different areas, might also be an explanation.

To address these issues, Jesse, Nathan, and I wrote this working paper on the subject, which will be presented in May at conference put on by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). How to lose weight very quickly Here are some of the key findings:

?In this paper, we show that simple analyses of national-level yield trends mask important geographic-, weather-, and soil-related factors that influence the estimated effect of GE crop adoption on yield. Exercise list Coupling county-level data on corn yields from 1980 to 2015 and state-level adoption of GE traits with data on weather variation and soil characteristics, a number of important findings emerge. Weight loss meal prep shopping list First, changes in weather and climatic conditions confound yield effects associated with GE adoption. Military diet 3 day Without controlling for weather variation, adoption of GE crops appears to have little impact on corn yields; however, once temperature and precipitation controls are added, GE adoption has significant effects on corn yields. Low carb diet hair loss Second, the adoption of GE corn has had differential effects on crop yields in different locations even among corn-belt states. Exercise calendar app However, we find that ad hoc political boundaries (i.e., states) do not provide a credible representation of differential GE effects. Best diet tips Rather, alternative measures based on soil characteristics provide a broad representation of differential effects and are consistent with the data. Exercise motivation required In particular, we find that the GE effect is much larger for soils with a larger water holding capacity, as well as non-sandy soils. Is paleo diet good Overall, we find that GE adoption has increased yields by approximately 18 bushels per acre on average, but this effect varies spatially across counties ranging from roughly 5 to 25 bushels per acre. Exercise kinesiology Finally, we do not find evidence that adoption of GE corn led to lower yield variability nor do we find that current GE traits mitigate the effects of heat or water stress. Weight loss 7 days ?

Since I first started working on the topic of animal welfare, I’ve had the sense that some (perhaps many?) consumers don’t want to know how farm animals are raised. 3 week weight loss While that observation probably rings intuitively true for many readers, for an economist it sounds strange. 6 ways to lose belly fat without exercise Whether we’re talking about GMO labeling, nutritional labels, country of origin labels on meat, or labels on cage free eggs, economists typically assume more information can’t make a person worse off. Low carb diet not working Either the consumer uses the information to make a better choice or they ignore it all together.

There is a stream of literature in economics and psychology that is beginning challenge the idea that “more information is better.” One simple explanation for the phenomenon could be that consumers, if they know for sure they will continue to consume the same amount of a good, could be better off ignoring information because the information could only lower their satisfaction (perhaps because they’ll feel guilty) for doing something they’ve already committed to doing. Exercise moves for beginners In this paper by Linda Thunstrom and co-authors, 58% of consumers making a meal choice chose to ignore free information on caloric content, a finding that Thunstrom calls “strategic self ignorance” arising from guilt avoidance.

Another possible explanation that I’ve previously published on is that, when people have limited attention, more information on topic A might distract people from a topic B, even though topic B ultimately has a larger impact on the consumers well-being.

It may also be the case that people want to believe certain things. How do i lose belly fat They derive satisfaction from holding onto certain beliefs and will avoid information that challenges them. Paleo diet weight loss plan These ideas and more are discussed by Russell Golman, David Hagmann and George Loewenstein in a nice review paper on what they call “information avoidance” for the Journal of Economic Literature.

A graduate student in our department, Eryn Bell, has been working with Bailey Norwood to apply some of these concepts to the topic of animal welfare. Fastest way to lose weight in 5 days They conducted a survey of 1,000 Oklahomans and asked them one of the two simple questions shown below. Jlo diet plan Depending on how the question was asked, from 24% to 44% of respondents self declared that they would rather NOT know how hogs are raised. Weight loss encouragement The primary reasons given for this response were that farmers were trusted (a belief consumers may prefer to hold), that there are more important issues to worry about (limited attention), and guilt aversion.

In the same survey, Bell and Norwood also included a set of questions based on some ideas I suggested. Exercise schedule pdf The question gave respondents the option to see a picture of how sows are raised or to simply see a blank screen for a certain period of time. Weight loss plateau eat more People were divided into three groups that varied how long they had to see the blank screen. Diet plan to lose weight fast in a month The idea was that we could use the waiting time as a “cost”, which would allow us to ask: how long are people willing to wait to NOT receive free information? As it turns out, people weren’t very sensitive to the waiting time. Protein diet recipes Nonetheless, regardless of the waiting time, about a third of respondents preferred to see an uninformative blank screen as opposed to a more informative screenshot of sow housing. Dr g weight loss syracuse These findings suggest at least some people, at least some of the time, would prefer not to know.

To be sure, dietary factors contribute to bad health at least some of the time for some people. Low carb diet menu to lose weight But, how large a role does diet play? Stated differently: even if you eat well all the time, are you guaranteed to be free of cancer, heart disease, and diabetes? Far from it according to two recent studies.

The first was published Friday in Science by Tomasetti, Li, and Vogelstein, who investigated cancer causes. 3 days diet plan for weight loss When discussing the things that can cause cancer, causes normally fall into one of two broad categories: nature (environmental factors) or nurture (inherited genetic factors). Weight loss pictures These authors, however, point to a third factor: as we grow, our cells naturally replicate themselves, and in the process, unavoidable DNA replication errors occur which ultimately lead to cancer. Slim in 6 diet plan The authors calculate that these replication errors or

Secondly, I ran across this interesting paper published a couple weeks ago in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Weight loss 1 month The authors attempted to ferret out how many deaths from heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes (what the authors call “cardiometabolic deaths”) that result each year annually come about from over- or under-consumption of certain types of foods. Healthy diet quiz As this critic pointed out, it is important to note that the authors estimates are associations/correlations NOT causation. Fastest way to lose weight in a week As such, I’d suggest caution in placing too much interpretation on the impacts from different types of food. Weight loss vegetables and fruits list Nonetheless, there were a couple of other less-well-publicized results which I found interesting.

Stated differently, 54.6% of deaths from heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes seems to be caused by something other than diet.

The other result that I found interesting from this study is that there has been a big decline in so-called cardiometabolic deaths. Exercise 2 context clues The authors write:

Some of this decline, they argue, is due to reduced sugar consumption and increased nut/seed consumption from 2002 to 2012.

Why does all this matter? Because these statistics help us understand the impacts of dietary and lifestyle changes. 4 days off military diet To illustrate, let’s take the above cancer statistic: 66.7% of cancers are caused by unavoidable replication errors. 3 month weight loss That leaves 33.3% of cancers, some of which are diet and lifestyle related and some of which are caused by inherited genetic factors. How to lose stomach fat For sake of simplicity, lets say you have zero risk from inherited genetic factors. Best diet for fat loss and toning Also note that the National Cancer Institute suggests that the chances of getting a new cancer in a given year are 454.8 per 100,000 people (or a 0.45% chance).

Putting it all together, your chance of getting cancer from random errors in DNA replication is 0.667*0.45%=0.30%, and your chance of getting cancer from diet and lifestyle factors (assuming no inherited risks) is 0.333*0.45%=0.15%. Exercise science jobs So, even if you could completely eliminate the cancer risk from diet and lifestyle factors, you’d go from a 0.45% chance of getting a new cancer to a 0.30% chance, a reduction of 0.15 percentage points.

Marc Bellemare and colleagues at the University of Minnesota have an important new paper out on food waste.

First, they note that there are important weaknesses and inconsistencies in the leading definitions of food waste published by the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Union. Paleo diet for diabetes Second, they provide compelling conceptual reasons to suggest that reported measures of food waste are almost certainly overstated. The paleo diet Finally, they propose a conceptual logically-consistent approach to measure food waste.

The arguments for why the value of food waste is overstated boil down to two factors: 1) some “waste” has productive uses as animal feed, compost, etc. How to lose weight using a treadmill and 2) the value of wasted food is often “priced” at the retail level, when in fact the actual waste occurs further upstream the supply chain where commodity prices are lower.

I am pleased to announce that I have officially accepted an offer to be the next Head of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University (I will also be nominated for the post of Distinguished Professor at Purdue) and will begin there after the first of July.

I have thoroughly enjoyed my 12 years at Oklahoma State and appreciate the support and opportunities OSU has afforded me. Weight loss las vegas I’ve had great students and colleagues, and have made wonderful friends in Stillwater. Pregnancy and exercise guidelines But, now’s the time to move on to a new challenge.

The college of agriculture at Purdue is routinely ranked in the top 5 to 10 worldwide, and the Department of Agricultural Economics has a long history of excellence and leadership in the profession. Protein diet for weight gain It’s a large department with about 50 faculty members, almost 150 graduate students, and 600 undergraduates. I want to lose weight so bad It’s a big job and I’m looking forward to it.

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